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Harnessing the benefits of productivity

How close are we to deals in trade wars and Brexit?

28 October 2019

Our Chief Investment Officer talks about trade wars, Brexit, and the likelihood of a recession.

The current landscape

Markets were quite volatile over the month. Bond markets, in particular, sold off before being bid up again as investors digested the prospects of an imminent recession. Although the risks of a recession are high at the moment, we do not think that they are quite as high as the bond market seems to be assuming.

We’ve long argued the importance of not underestimating the desire of both sides to avoid the uncertainty which comes from the UK leaving the EU without a deal. Although the recent compromise on the Northern Ireland backstop should appease both sides to a degree, reaching a deal still feels a long way off.

As President Trump faces re-election next year, it is likely that he will want to secure a trade deal with China, at least in the short term. We expect any deal will help support business confidence.

Harnessing the benefits of productivity

As part of our aim to keep clients informed of our current investment views and how these themes are impacting your discretionary portfolios, Toby Cross, Head of Client Investment Solutions, talks to Will Hobbs, Chief Investment Officer, about recent market volatility, the twists and turns of Brexit, and the likelihood of a trade deal between the US and China.

Things to consider

The value of investments can fall as well as rise. You may get back less than what you originally invested.

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