Q4 2024 RMI update
What’s been happening in markets?
The final quarter of 2024 was dominated by a plethora of fiscal developments across the world – US elections, the UK Budget, disruptions in Germany and France, unrest in South Korea, and strong signalling from policymakers in China to support the economy.
In the US, President Trump won the election in what ended up to be a decisive victory. He won all seven swing states and the popular vote. Not only that, Republicans gained control of Congress, securing a majority in both the House and Senate.
A Republican sweep has important policy implications. While campaign trail talk doesn't always translate into policy action, this outcome likely means that more of President Trump’s policy agenda will come to pass.
Meanwhile, the UK Budget’s bark proved to be far worse than its bite. The Chancellor announced a significant rise in spending, funded by a mix of tax rises and an increase in debt. Bank of England projections saw growth and the near-term inflation picture revised higher.
Elsewhere, China’s structural economic issues remain – a deep property crisis, deflationary (falling prices) concerns, and rock-bottom consumer confidence. Rumours abound about the magnitude, type, and timing of much-needed stimulus.
The quarter was a great reminder to tune out the noise and stay invested. It’s not difficult to imagine 2025 being as eventful, so remember to keep focused on your long-term investment goals.